疫苗接种与非学校NPIs塑造了安大略省Omicron前COVID-19住院负担

Abstract

We develop an age- and immunity-structured COVID-19 model with setting-specific contacts, calibrated to Ontario incidence and hospital admissions before Omicron. We simulate counterfactual vaccination strategies and contact restrictions in schools, workplaces, and other community settings, evaluating projected severe-case demand against an illustrative healthcare-capacity benchmark. Vaccination combined with workplace and community contact restrictions keeps simulated demand within capacity. In contrast, relaxing restrictions in either setting produces large surges and repeated capacity threats, even when school restrictions remain. School-only changes produce smaller effects on severe disease. These findings highlight the value of vaccination and setting-specific contact restrictions that prioritize workplace and community settings for pathogens with adult-concentrated severe outcomes.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

This study uses exclusively publicly available, aggregated epidemiological and public health data and involves no direct human participation or identifiable individual-level information. Data sources are described in details in the manuscript.

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Yes

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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

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Data Availability

The GitHub repository containing the code and data is available upon request.

Funder Information Declared

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, https://ror.org/01h531d29

York University Research Chair Program