野火烟雾对美国死亡率留下长达五年的影响印记

Abstract

Wildfire smoke poses a growing health risk worldwide, yet the magnitude and temporal evolution of mortality after episodic exposure remain poorly resolved, limiting burden assessment. Using monthly county-level wildfire PM2.5 and mortality data from the United State, we exploit episodic exposure contrasts to deconvolve overlapping mortality responses and recover the impulse-response function. The excess mortality response peaks approximately three years after an exposure pulse and subsides by five years. We estimate 1.7 (95% uncertainty interval: 1.1-2.3) million smoke-associated deaths during 2011-2023, approximately ten times estimates using long-term ambient PM2.5 mortality relative risks. Circulatory and respiratory diseases contribute comparably and dominate this burden. Responses are markedly greater among adults ≥65 years; during the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide cumulative responses are significantly higher over at least the first seven months after exposure. Reducing wildfire smoke exposure can thus yield substantial health benefits over multiple years, particularly when population vulnerability is heightened.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Author Declarations

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The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

Month-county level mortality data in the contiguous United States (US) from 2006 to 2023 were collected from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) WONDER (Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) online database. (https://wonder.cdc.gov/)

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Data Availability

The data sources, models, and model configurations underlying the conclusions are described in the main text.

Funder Information Declared

Max Planck Society, https://ror.org/01hhn8329